Trade Tensions and Unstable Weather Shake the Global Coffee Market

Tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on coffee imports—particularly robusta from Vietnam and Indonesia—created a risk-averse sentiment in markets this Thursday (03), pressuring coffee prices, especially arabica. The move heightened concerns about demand in the United States, the world’s largest coffee consumer, potentially disrupting trade flows and further worsening the already tight supply. This led to significant declines in arabica futures, with losses exceeding 300 points.

Despite negative international pressure, one piece of data may signal future price support: StoneX revised its Brazilian production estimate downward, projecting a total harvest of 64.5 million bags, including 38.7 million arabica bags—13.5% below last season. Although the robusta production forecast was slightly adjusted upward, the overall scenario suggests lower supply, which could support prices in the medium term if demand rebounds.

In Brazil’s domestic market, prices mirrored the losses on the New York exchange, with drops in key trading regions such as Machado, Poços de Caldas, and Franca. The retreat of buyers, coupled with international uncertainty, helps explain this movement. However, the price increase recorded in Rio Grande do Sul shows that the domestic market may react unevenly, reflecting the complex interaction between climate, geopolitical, and trade factors. Fonte: Noticia Agrícolas Preocupação com as tarifas recíprocas de Trump derruba os preços do café no... - Notícias Agrícolas