Rains Drive Down Coffee Prices on Exchanges, but Uncertainties Persist for the 2025 Harvest

The drop in coffee prices this Monday (21) was mainly driven by the arrival of above-average rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, easing immediate concerns about the prolonged drought. However, this weather relief also led to a price correction, resulting in significant declines for both arabica and robusta on international exchanges. The strong devaluation reflects the expectation that these rains may help partially recover the crops, reducing the bullish momentum that had supported prices in recent weeks.

Despite the improved weather, there remain significant uncertainties regarding the 2025 harvest, especially due to the long period of drought and high temperatures that hampered the flowering development in crucial regions like southern Minas Gerais. Reports from producers indicate that many crops had impaired flower openings, which could directly impact the next harvest’s production potential. Although the current rains are beneficial for the flowering, the damage already done still presents a major challenge to a full recovery of production.

In Brazil’s domestic market, coffee prices remain strong, though they are experiencing declines in line with the depreciation seen on exchanges. The weakening of the real against the dollar has also encouraged exports, providing some support for domestic prices. However, the downward trend in the prices of arabica and peeled cherry coffee in key producing regions such as Campos Gerais and Guaxupé suggests that the market still faces pressures despite strong external demand.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas