Moderate Rains Boost Coffee Market, but Water Deficit Still Concerns 2025/26 Harvest

Recent rains in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, though below expectations, are providing some support for the international coffee market. According to Haroldo Bonfá from Pharos Consulting, these rains, combined with those observed in previous weeks, are aiding in the flowering and fruit-setting stages. However, the water deficit remains a concern. The market is closely watching for more consistent rainfall to ensure the development of the 2025/26 harvest, especially in arabica regions, where water levels are still insufficient.

This climate scenario has led to fluctuations in the New York and London exchanges, with arabica experiencing a significant rise on Wednesday (23). Futures contracts saw increases of up to 250 points, reflecting expectations that, while scarce, the rains might contribute to partial recovery of the crops. On the other hand, robusta saw a slight decline in some contracts but also posted gains, indicating a more stable outlook for this variety under current climate conditions.

In Brazil’s domestic market, physical coffee prices have also responded to climate conditions and international fluctuations, with both Arabica Type 6 and Pulped Natural recording considerable gains in various regions, such as Maringá, Machado, and Guaxupé. The impact of rainfall and expectations for production improvements continue to influence prices, pointing to a cautiously optimistic scenario, especially for arabica, which faces greater water challenges.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas