Global Coffee Market on the Rise: Reduced Stocks and Adverse Weather Drive Prices Up

The global coffee market closed on Friday, September 13, with significant gains in both the New York and London exchanges, reflecting a record surge in robusta prices and a sharp appreciation of arabica. Robusta futures contracts soared, with November 2024 rising by $190, while arabica also showed strong growth, with an increase of over 1,000 points for the December 2024 contract. A report from Pharos Consultoria highlighted that robusta stocks decreased significantly in September, further driving up prices. The drop in stock levels, combined with the expected low supply for upcoming harvests, suggests a continued upward trend for robusta in the coming months.

Another factor influencing price increases is the seasonality of Brazilian and Vietnamese production. In Brazil, a lack of rainfall, exacerbated by the forecasted La Niña, adds pressure to the 2025 harvest. Vietnam, the largest exporter of robusta, is also facing challenges, with a lower-than-expected crop. The initial forecast of 29 million bags has been revised down to 24 million, raising expectations for Brazilian production and putting more pressure on global prices. Pavel Cardoso, president of ABIC, emphasized that this climate uncertainty brings added responsibility for the Brazilian harvest.

In the Brazilian domestic market, despite the high valuation of coffee and favorable prices, negotiations have been more restrained due to uncertainty over the future harvest. However, regions such as Poços de Caldas and Guaxupé in Minas Gerais recorded increases in arabica and peeled cherry coffee prices. The appreciation in the physical market reflects the impact of unfavorable weather conditions and global supply pressure, creating an environment of caution and anticipation among national producers.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas