Coffee Prices Rise with Unfavorable Weather Forecasts and Global Supply at Risk

The coffee market on Friday (18) saw an upward trend for both arabica and robusta, driven primarily by revised weather forecasts in Brazil. Expectations of more scattered rains in Minas Gerais, the country’s main coffee-producing region, eased concerns over water recovery, leading to the appreciation of futures contracts for both varieties. Arabica recorded an increase of 215 points in its main contracts, while robusta also showed gains, though more modest in comparison.

This weather situation not only impacts Brazil but also the global coffee supply, as production issues in Asia continue to contribute to a shortage relative to demand. The global coffee market has experienced three consecutive years of insufficient supply, and uncertainties surrounding the 2025 Brazilian crop keep prices elevated. If Brazil’s 2025 production falls short of expectations, the market could face another imbalance between supply and demand, maintaining upward pressure on prices.

In the Brazilian domestic market, there was a cautious stance as producers monitored the rise in the New York Stock Exchange alongside a drop in the dollar against the real. This led to a conservative sales approach, with producers opting to sell only when necessary. Despite this, Arabica Type 6 and Pulped Natural Coffee (Cereja Descascado) saw price increases, particularly in regions like Franca (SP), Guaxupé (MG), and Varginha (MG), reflecting the influence of international market trends on domestic prices.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas