Coffee Prices Rise with Forecast of Cold Weather and Market Adjustments

On Tuesday, the 6th, coffee prices in the international market recorded significant appreciation. Arabica coffee futures contracts in New York experienced substantial increases, with the September/24 contract rising by 1025 points, reaching 235.95 cents/lbp, while the December/24, March/25, and May/25 contracts also saw considerable gains. In London, robusta coffee also showed notable increases, with the September/24 contract rising by $208 per ton, reflecting a positive market adjustment. This appreciation was partly driven by the forecast of a cold air mass expected to hit Brazil in the coming days, influencing production and supply expectations.

The forecast of lower temperatures in Brazil created a scenario of uncertainty and stress in the market, with investors closely monitoring the progress of this cold air mass, according to data from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). The potential impact of the cold on coffee-growing areas raised additional concerns, despite the need to track the development of this weather condition. Haroldo Bonfá emphasized the necessity of continuous monitoring, especially as the start of the week had been marked by significant drops in coffee prices in international markets. The rapid harvest of the 2024/25 crop in Brazil, reported by Safras & Mercado, also influenced the market, with 87% of the harvest completed by July 29, surpassing the performance of the previous year and the five-year average.

In the Brazilian physical market, this appreciation trend was closely followed. Major producing regions recorded price increases for type 6 hard drink coffee and peeled cherry type. Guaxupé/MG, Poços de Caldas/MG, Patrocínio/MG, Machado/MG, Varginha/MG, and Franca/SP all experienced price hikes, reflecting the market's positive response to the expectations of lower supply due to climatic conditions and the accelerated harvest pace. These price increases in the trading areas underscore the influence of weather conditions and supply and demand dynamics in the coffee market, highlighting the importance of monitoring these factors to predict future trends.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas