Coffee Market: Volatility Persists with Weather Forecasts and Limited Stocks

Coffee prices ended Thursday (13) with mixed movements in international markets, reflecting the influence of weather and supply factors. Arabica coffee faced pressure after forecasts predicted widespread rainfall in Minas Gerais, which could ease drought concerns and benefit the upcoming harvest. Meanwhile, robusta rebounded, driven by a drop in ICE-monitored stocks, which hit a one-and-a-half-week low, reinforcing the perception of tighter supply. This volatility highlights the delicate balance between production expectations and market conditions.

Supply constraints remain a key concern for the sector. According to Orlando Editore from Datagro, the coffee market is in its fifth consecutive year of production limitations, while demand remains stable. Additionally, Brazilian stocks are at historically low levels, which could impact the country’s share in global trade. Datagro projects the 2025 harvest at 64 million bags, similar to the previous year, while IBGE released a more conservative estimate of 52.8 million bags, reflecting a 7.5% decline compared to 2024.

In the domestic market, producers are uncertain about future production, prioritizing supply limitations over price fluctuations. This uncertainty has led to a standstill in negotiations across several regions, except for Machado/MG, where Arabica Type 6 recorded a 1.21% drop, priced at R$ 2,440.00 per bag. With the 2025 harvest approaching and volatility persisting, the market remains cautious, awaiting clearer insights into climate impacts and coffee availability in the coming months.

Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Mercado do café vive o 5º ano consecutivo de uma oferta menor que a demanda - Notícias Agrícolas