Coffee Market Under Pressure: Rains in Brazil and Uncertainties for the 2025 Crop

The coffee market on Tuesday (22) experienced moderate declines in both arabica and robusta prices, driven by forecasts of above-average rainfall in Brazil. While the rains are welcome, they are not enough to reverse the damage caused by the prolonged drought, leaving ongoing concerns about the 2025 harvest. Reduced productivity, particularly for arabica, is linked to grain abortion and weakened crops, with compromised flowering stages due to earlier adverse conditions.

However, market analyst Gil Barabach indicates that the pessimism surrounding arabica production may ease if the rains continue, potentially allowing for crop recovery and even a positive surprise in the future. For robusta, the outlook is more optimistic, as the climatic conditions have been less severe for this variety. The impact of these forecasts on the New York and London exchanges led to price declines, reflecting uncertainties about the future performance of Brazilian crops.

In Brazil’s domestic market, coffee prices showed mixed behavior, with some regions recording declines and others seeing slight increases. For instance, Café Arábica Tipo 6 experienced drops in Machado and Poços de Caldas but a slight rise in Guaxupé. Similarly, Cereja Descascado followed this trend, with price declines in Poços de Caldas and gains in Campos Gerais. These fluctuations in the physical market reflect the volatility caused by weather conditions and expectations surrounding future production.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas