Coffee Market Starts the Week on a High, But Dry Weather and Global Uncertainties Raise Concerns

The coffee market started the week with moderate gains in international exchanges, mainly driven by dry weather and high temperatures in Brazil’s key producing regions. The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar also contributed to the price increase, as it discourages exports, reducing supply in the international market. Additionally, commercialization of the 2025/26 crop has reached 13.36%, but producers are now shifting their focus to concerns about the lack of rainfall, which is already impacting the development of the 2026/27 crop. With below-average precipitation levels in recent months and forecasts of a dry winter, the formation of floral buds may be compromised, affecting future production.

Despite price volatility, market fundamentals remain stable, according to analyses from Escritório Carvalhaes. The fluctuations seen in both New York and London reflect not only weather conditions in Brazil but also global uncertainty, particularly regarding changes in U.S. political and economic policies under the new administration. In the futures market, arabica registered significant increases for upcoming contracts, with gains of up to 725 points. Robusta also followed the upward trend, with price increases of up to $77 per ton in futures contracts.

In the domestic market, there is demand for all coffee qualities, but producers remain resistant to the prices offered by buyers, reducing the volume of closed deals. Arabica Type 6 saw price increases in Campos Gerais/MG and Varginha/MG but declined in Machado/MG, highlighting sellers’ cautious stance. Meanwhile, Pulped Natural coffee experienced gains in most monitored regions, with notable increases in Guaxupé/MG and Campos Gerais/MG. The overall scenario indicates a market still sensitive to weather conditions and supply-demand dynamics, with continued price volatility expected in the coming months. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Mercado cafeeiro fecha sessão desta 2ª feira (17) com preços moderadamente... - Notícias Agrícolas