Coffee Market Fluctuates with Rising Stocks and Climate Uncertainties in Brazil

The coffee market showed mixed movements on Monday (10), reflecting both fundamental and speculative factors. The rise in ICE-monitored stocks for both arabica and robusta exerted pressure on prices. Additionally, the increase in robusta stocks last Friday (07) reinforces the perception of a relatively comfortable supply. However, weather conditions in Brazil remain a major concern, with reports of low precipitation in Minas Gerais, which could affect soil moisture and impact future productivity, particularly for the 2026 crop.

Arabica futures showed varied movements across contracts, with declines in shorter-term maturities (March and May/25) and gains in longer-term contracts (July and September/25), suggesting that the market is still weighing the impact of weather conditions and global demand. Meanwhile, robusta maintained a more consistent upward trend, possibly indicating stronger demand or specific supply concerns for this type of coffee. Market volatility is expected to persist due to uncertainty surrounding Brazilian production, while the market also assesses the impact of high prices on global consumption.

In the domestic market, arabica coffee prices showed little variation, with opposing movements in different regions. Poços de Caldas/MG recorded a 2.46% increase for Type 6 and a slight 0.75% rise for Pulped Natural, while the average price in Rio Grande do Sul fell by 2.43%. This scenario reflects a market still adjusting to climate uncertainties and supply and demand dynamics. Overall, the sector remains focused on weather forecasts and retailer strategies, as they struggle to pass on costs to the final consumer. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Preço do café arábica encerra 2ª feira (10) em campo misto após alta nos... - Notícias Agrícolas