Coffee Market Faces Global Uncertainties: Arabica Declines and Critical Stock Levels in Brazil

The international coffee market remains highly unstable, reflecting the growing tension in global trade. This Wednesday (9th), arabica coffee in New York dropped again, reaching its lowest level in two and a half months, mainly due to the escalating trade war between China and the United States. Robusta, traded in London, showed mixed behavior, with the nearest contracts rising. These fluctuations highlight the sector’s sensitivity to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical dynamics, especially in the pre-harvest period in Brazil.

Domestically, the scenario is equally concerning. Despite potential export opportunities driven by the rising prices of coffee from other producing countries, Brazil faces a serious issue: virtually depleted stocks and the risk of a crop failure in 2025. As analyst Haroldo Bonfá pointed out, multiple uncertainties are weighing on the Brazilian market, from weather conditions to the size of the upcoming harvest. This combination of factors could compromise Brazil's ability to meet both external and internal demand, even in an international context that is currently favorable to Brazilian coffee.

In the Brazilian physical market, activity remained subdued. Only a few regions registered price changes, with highlights being the increase in prices for Type 6 Arabica in Machado/MG and Espírito Santo do Pinhal/SP. Meanwhile, pulped cherry arabica showed a slight decline only in Pinhal. This cautious behavior among producers reflects a moment of expectation and concern, given the difficulty in pricing a product amid so many external and internal variables. The coffee sector, therefore, is treading uncertain ground, where strategic decisions must be made based on careful analysis and close attention to fast-changing global developments.

Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Após dia de volatilidade, preços do café encerram sessão desta 4ª feira (09)... - Notícias Agrícolas