Coffee Market Declines: Currency Pressure and Limited Supply Increase Uncertainty

The coffee market recorded another day of losses this Thursday (27), mainly impacted by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, which reached a three-week low. This movement encouraged the liquidation of positions in futures contracts, putting pressure on both arabica and robusta prices. In Brazil, supply remains tight, with indications that the remaining stocks from the current crop are minimal, which could complicate both domestic supply and exports in the coming months. Nevertheless, price declines indicate that other factors, such as currency pressure and speculation, continue to weigh more in the short term.

In the futures market, arabica posted declines across all maturities, with the May/25 contract standing out after falling 160 points to close at 373.60 cents/lb. Robusta also had a negative day, with losses of up to $36 per ton in the July/25 contract, reflecting risk aversion in the sector. Despite these devaluations, the market remains attentive to weather conditions in Brazil, particularly with the forecast of a new heatwave from February 28 to March 6. High temperatures could compromise the final development of the next crop, adding an element of uncertainty to medium- and long-term prices.

In the domestic market, liquidity remains low, with producers holding back amid the prices offered by buyers. Arabica type 6 fell 1.21% in Varginha/MG, trading at R$ 2,440.00 per bag, while peeled cherry dropped 1.20% to R$ 2,480.00 per bag. Sellers’ resistance to accepting current prices reinforces the scenario of little activity in the physical market. With tight stocks and weather risks still in play, the sector is expected to face further challenges in the coming months, especially if currency fluctuations and global volatility persist.

Fonte: Noticia Agrícola Café: Queda do real frente ao dólar faz preços fecharem sessão desta 5ª... - Notícias Agrícolas