Coffee Market Closes July with Monthly Gains Amid Daily Declines and Harvest & Weather Pressures

On Wednesday, July 31st, coffee futures closed lower across major contracts on the New York and London exchanges, reflecting a general downturn at the end of the month. The September 2024 arabica contract fell by 0.95%, reaching 228.6 cents/lbp, with similar declines observed in the December 2024, March 2025, and May 2025 contracts. However, despite these daily losses, the overall trend for July was positive for prices. In New York, arabica prices rose by 1.93% and 2.6% for the September and December contracts, respectively, driven mainly by concerns over dry weather in Minas Gerais, which has been a limiting factor for market losses.

Below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, which accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica production, has been a key factor supporting prices, according to Barchart. However, the rapid pace of the Brazilian harvest, which was 81% complete as of July 23rd, according to Safras & Mercado, contributed to the day's declines. The faster-than-usual harvest has put downward pressure on prices, despite ongoing weather-related concerns.

In the London robusta market, prices showed slight declines or stability. The September 2024 contract fell by $5, while the November and January 2025 contracts experienced mixed movements. For the month as a whole, robusta recorded a 4.77% drop in the September contract but saw increases of 5.51% and 6.63% in the November and January contracts, respectively. Concerns over drought in Vietnam, which could reduce global robusta production, have supported prices. On the other hand, the recovery of ICE stocks and the fast-tracked completion of the Brazilian robusta harvest have exerted negative pressure on prices. In the Brazilian domestic market, prices for type 6 hard drink bica corrida and pulped natural coffees saw negative variations in regions such as Guaxupé/MG and Campos Gerais/MG.

Fonte: Notícias Agrícolas