Coffee Faces Moderate Declines Amidst Climatic Pressures and Productivity Drop

The coffee market experienced a moderate decline in both New York and London exchanges this Thursday (19). Arabica futures closed the session with a 275-point drop for the December 2024 contract, followed by similar declines for the March and May 2025 contracts. Robusta also saw significant losses, with prices down by as much as $86 for the November 2024 contract. These movements were driven by new estimates from Conab, forecasting a 0.5% decrease in Brazil's coffee production for 2024, totaling 54.79 million bags.

The drop in the national average productivity, which fell 1.9% compared to the 2023 crop, was attributed to adverse weather conditions, hampering initial expectations of a more productive harvest. However, the forecast of rainfall in Brazil's key coffee regions next week, during the crucial flowering period, offers a glimmer of hope for producers. Meanwhile, the potential for a storm in Vietnam adds pressure to the market, possibly impacting short-term prices, especially for robusta.

In Brazil’s domestic market, prices mirrored the international trend, with Arabica Type 6 coffee recording significant drops in regions like Machado/MG and Campos Gerais. The peeled cherry variety also saw declines, except in Poços de Caldas/MG, where it recorded a slight increase of 0.63%. The current scenario points to ongoing volatility, as the market closely watches weather conditions and global supply developments.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas