Coffee Declines After a Month-Long Rally, but Global Supply Still Concerns the Marketo

According to Barchart, this long-term liquidation led to declines in futures contracts, although concerns over global supply still provide medium-term price support. Additionally, Reuters reported that Arabica futures could drop around 30% by the end of 2025, driven by a potential demand reduction following recent record prices. In New York, the March/25 contract closed at 419.75 cents/lbp, with a sharp decline of 1,915 points.

In the Robusta market, the day also ended with losses, as futures contracts in London recorded declines between $59 and $68 per ton. This movement suggests that the market may be undergoing a correction period, especially given the perception that prices may have deviated from supply and demand fundamentals. With tight global stocks and uncertainties about the upcoming harvest, prices may still find support in external factors such as weather and currency fluctuations.

In Brazil, producers remain cautious, in no hurry to sell, especially as the appreciation of the Brazilian real reduces earnings in currency conversion. In the physical market, prices followed the futures decline, registering significant drops across various regions. Type 6 Arabica Coffee saw declines of up to 3.77% in Guaxupé/MG, while Pulped Natural Coffee fell 3.66% in Guaxupé/MG and 3.23% in Espírito Santo do Pinhal/SP. Despite this drop, around 85% of the current crop has already been sold, indicating a scenario of lower selling pressure and potential price support if supply fundamentals remain tight.

Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Café: em dia de grande ajuste, preços do arábica perdem força nos futuros... - Notícias Agrícolas