Climate Impacts and Stock Shortages Affect Future Harvests and Global Prices

The current coffee market is characterized by high volatility, mainly driven by the anticipation of rain in Brazilian coffee-growing areas following a prolonged period of drought and heat. While the arrival of rain may alleviate some of the damage, tight coffee stocks combined with significant growth in consumption are causing price fluctuations in the New York and London exchanges. Both Arabica and Robusta futures contracts show significant increases, reflecting market pressure in response to limited supply and climate uncertainty.

Additionally, the analysis by Eduardo Carvalhaes and José Donizeti Alves highlights concerns about the impact of weather conditions on future harvests. The losses caused by the extended drought will not be fully reversed by rain, and the crops are already showing delays in vegetative development, which may negatively affect production in 2025 and 2026. This scenario underscores the importance of closely monitoring climate developments in producing regions, as any changes could further influence price behavior in the international market.

In the Brazilian domestic market, the situation is also unstable, with significant price variations for Arabica Type 6 and pulped cherry coffee across different regions. These fluctuations reflect both the climatic uncertainties and the supply and demand dynamics within Brazil, one of the world’s largest coffee exporters. Local price movements mirror global trends, with the physical market responding immediately to shifts in production expectations.

Fonte: Notícias Agrícolas