Arabica Coffee Sees Sharp Decline in New York Amid Demand Concerns and Rain Forecasts in Brazil

Thursday’s session (27) was marked by a sharp drop in arabica coffee futures prices on the New York Stock Exchange, mainly reflecting concerns over demand and the forecast of rain in Brazil. Contracts for the nearest maturities posted significant declines, with May/25 closing at 378.80 cents/lb, July/25 at 374.95 cents/lb, and September/25 at 370.30 cents/lb. The price retreat to the lowest levels in almost a month highlights the influence of weather conditions on future supply and the impact of uncertainty on global coffee consumption.

Beyond the weather factor, the market is also reacting to demand concerns, particularly amid record prices that could affect consumption. According to consultant Michael J. Nugent, there is growing fear that consumers may become more cautious with spending, which could limit the ability to pass on price increases to retailers. A Reuters report reinforces this view, noting that major roasters such as Nestlé and JDE Peet’s are in talks with retailers about potential price adjustments, as raw material costs have nearly doubled. If ING analyst Reg Watson’s predictions come true, consumers could face price hikes of up to 25%.

While arabica is experiencing significant declines, the robusta coffee market in London is also seeing depreciation, with May/25, July/25, and September/25 contracts falling between $80 and $86 per ton. However, the supply of robusta remains tight in Vietnam and Indonesia, as Vietnamese producers are holding back sales in hopes of higher future prices. This strategy of supply retention could impact robusta prices in the medium term, especially if demand for this variety increases as a more affordable alternative to expensive arabica. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Café: Preços futuros terminam a sessão desta 5ª feira com fortes baixas na... - Notícias Agrícolas