Arabica Coffee Falls in New York While Robusta Rises in London: Climate and Exports Under Watch

The Arabica coffee futures market ended the first trading session of the week with new price drops on the New York Stock Exchange, contrasting with the appreciation observed in Robusta in London. September 2024 Arabica fell by 195 points to 224.85 cents/lb, and other contracts followed the same downward trend. In London, however, Robusta saw significant appreciation, with September 2024 rising by $56 per ton to close at $4067. This divergence reflects the different market conditions and regional factors influencing the prices of each type of coffee.

The performance of Arabica prices is directly linked to the continuous monitoring of the Brazilian crop. The harvest is in full swing, benefiting from favorable weather conditions, although the water deficit in some regions is starting to raise concerns. According to analyses, Arabica prices find some support due to the possibility of drier-than-normal weather conditions negatively affecting Brazilian crops. This scenario of climatic uncertainty is a crucial factor for price volatility, as the market awaits rains within the ideal window to reverse the water deficit.

Meanwhile, Robusta benefited from recent data from Vietnam, which reported a 10.6% drop in exports from January to June 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. This data contributed to the rise in Robusta prices, along with concerns about weather conditions in Vietnam, which suffered from severe drought in the first half of 2024. In Brazil, the physical market followed the trend of Arabica devaluation, with declines recorded in several key trading areas. This scenario highlights the complexity of the global coffee market, where regional and international factors intertwine to significantly influence prices.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas