Adverse Weather, Low Stocks, and Global Uncertainty Drive the Market

The international coffee market kicked off the week with strong gains, driven by weather concerns and tightening global supply. Below-average rainfall in Brazil supported arabica prices in New York, while robusta surged 3.76% in London, reflecting the drop in ICE-monitored stocks to a six-week low. The removal of certain U.S. tariffs also helped shift investor focus back to supply risks, further boosting robusta prices.

Despite the positive performance on the exchanges, caution remains in the physical market and among analysts. Pine Agronegócios notes that while prices are rising, domestic consumption shows signs of decline, and there’s concern that a shift in market narrative could affect speculative behavior. The Carvalhaes Office echoes this atmosphere of uncertainty, highlighting global political volatility and the difficulty of forecasting market trends amid constant changes in decisions by world leaders.

In Brazil, the domestic market mirrored international highs, with arabica type 6 prices increasing in several key regions like Maringá and Poços de Caldas. However, trading remains limited. According to Safras & Mercado, 95% of last season’s crop has already been sold, indicating low availability during the off-season. Sales of the upcoming crop, set to begin harvesting in April, are moving slowly, with only 14% sold so far. Producers remain cautious, carefully timing sales based on expectations around weather, supply, and global market shifts. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Café: Oferta mais restrita consolida alta de mais de 3% do robusta no... - Notícias Agrícolas